Interview

Dr. Obadiah Mailafia On The Parameters Of A Failing State

Published

3 years ago

August 22, 2021

NewTimes

Professor Ademola Dasylva At 70: A Labourer In The Vineyard

Professor Toyin Falola

THE TOYIN FALOLA INTERVIEWS

A CONVERSATION WITH DR. OBADIAH MAILAFIA, PART 4

Toyin Falola

Dr. Obadiah Mailafia

This occasion of the Toyin Falola Interviews featured as a guest of honor, the erudite scholar and accomplished development economist, Dr. Obadiah Mailafia, to field questions on whether or not Nigeria is a failing state. We might agree that this is one query that sits securely in the minds of many a Nigerian, no thanks to the poor state of affairs in the nation’s economic, security, and governance aspects, which has won it the label of a failed state in some intelligent circles.

As it stands, even the very notion of Nigeria as a nation continues to generate dispute given the rising instances of crises developing along ethnic and religious fault-lines. According to some people, the rising expressions of loyalty to sub-national identities over any national sentiment that has characterized Nigeria’s slow but sure decline into utter chaos and predictable disintegration can be blamed on the nation’s arbitrary origins. Nevertheless, whatever problems Lugard might have visited on Nigeria through the 1914 amalgamation, there were periods in the nation’s development history when it showed great promise and competed favorably with the best economies of the world. How then has Nigeria fallen to such depths of socio-economic crises and severe insecurity?

The recent Toyin Falola Interviews provided the platform for stakeholders and concerned citizenry—in very uncertain and unsettling times—to participate in a discussion aimed at adequately identifying the Nigerian situation, how it developed, and the possible ways to come out of it. Thus, the interview opened with a welcome address and introductions delivered by the chief host and moderator, who also set the agenda for the day’s interview by presenting its theme: “Is Nigeria a failed state?”

Ms. Bamidele Ademola-Olateju, an accomplished media personality and the first interviewer, set the ball rolling with questions on why Dr. Mailafia would refer to Nigeria as a failing state when many others might call it a failed state; whether Nigeria as a corporate entity will survive, and if it deserves to; why the naira is failing so “precipitously,” and what can be done to bolster it; and how can meritocracy be taken seriously in the country to make it count?

In his response, Dr. Mailafia noted that the development of the concept of “failed states” has not yet been fully concluded, surrounded as it still was by controversy. He, however, went ahead, after some description of the deplorable state of affairs in the country, to elucidate that, as it were, Nigeria exhibits most of the identified symptoms of a failed state, including long periods of violence and the lack of state monopoly of the instruments of violence, the collapse of the economy and state institutions, widespread poverty, the failure of the state to deliver public goods, civil liberty, the rule of law, protection of human rights, and administration of justice. And that his decision to use the phrase “failing state” in describing Nigeria’s current situation was only due to his optimistic nature and some “residual nationalism.”

According to Dr. Mailafia, Nigeria cannot survive as a corporate entity based on the current trajectories of decaying infrastructures, poor governance, grand corruption, climatic changes, and lack of government capacity. And on whether the nation deserves to, he accedes that given the number of atrocities and bloodletting committed against innocents across the country, it ordinarily should not. However, the teachings and injunctions of his Christian faith make provisions for grace and redemption, but with one caveat: Nigeria must not continue to tempt fate.

Speaking on the falling value of the naira, Dr. Mailafia provided a historical account of the currency’s decline, from its days of advantage over the dollar till the present, where it is fast losing its value as a legal tender. These progressive stages of decline, he said, started perceptibly with the Structural Adjustment and currency devaluation of the Gen. Ibrahim Babangida regime and have been maintained by high inflation, the deficit in the balance of trade, lack of faith in the Nigerian system, misguided policies, and what he called “the dollarization of the economy.” He also alleged that vested interests have captured the country’s apex bank (CBN). To reverse this trend, a development strategy is needed, likewise a genuine interest in saving Nigeria.

Crisis in Jos as people were running to save their lives.

Concerning the restoration of meritocracy, Dr. Mailafia talked about the difference in the standards set for educational performance (cut-off marks) across the country’s regions. He claims that not only does this undermine the entire purpose of education, but it also affects service performance where underdeveloped and unqualified personnel occupy positions of public service. For him, instead of engaging in nepotism, the regions affected should invest in mid-way schools to help struggling students come up to par.

The next set of questions were posed by Dr. Lasisi Olagunju, a distinguished scholar and editor with The Tribune. These touched on Dr. Mailafia’s thoughts on the North exporting crises to other parts of the country, the reintegration of “repentant” terrorists into society; why as a contestant to the country’s top position he felt Nigeria deserved him and vice versa; what the next president of Nigeria should do regarding the country’s designation as the “poverty capital of the world,” the role of the North in the situation, and whether Nigeria should be restructured, dissolved, or if it should just be business as usual. In response, Dr. Mailafia conceded that the North is plagued by insecurity, featuring rampant killings by insurgents and terrorist groups like the Boko Haram and ISWAP.

Furthermore, he pointed out the extent of social decay in the country, especially in Kano State, the high divorce rates, rampant drug addiction, large number of out-of-school children (Almajirai), and high levels of deprivation. According to Dr. Mailafia, the morally bankrupt elites have intentionally turned a blind eye to all of these social evils, choosing instead to perpetuate ignorance among the masses while attempting to drag other regions down to their level. However, he requests that the North must be looked upon with compassion and that any (new) administration intent on resolving these issues must first endeavor to look at the North with objectivity as the North is “deprived.” Additionally, such an administration must also reconcile the warring parties, return the out-of-school children to class, and employ more teachers to cater for their education, as the former has the potential of becoming a ready army in the hands of mischief-makers.

On the reintegration of alleged “repentant” insurgents, the guest of honor pointed out that there is nowhere in the world where that is obtainable, especially where such insurgents are integrated into the armed forces after just two weeks of rehabilitation. He alluded that this has adversely affected counter-insurgency efforts, with hostages being privy to sensitive information before they are executed. He also spoke against the practice of giving all such intervention attention to “repentant” terrorists while their victims are left to all manner of hardships. This, he said, was in very bad faith.

Addressing the question of his ambition to become president, Dr. Mailafia revealed that he tried to serve the nation and that it was up to the Nigerian people to decide if he was whom they wanted. He remarked that he was ill-prepared for the last elections he contested and also failed to gain the backing of certain “elders,” without whom one would be “on his own.” Nevertheless, the 2019 Nigeria presidential election candidate of the African Democratic Congress party promised not to victimize those who have attacked and killed his people should he be allowed to serve.

Reacting to the question on Nigeria’s designation as the poverty capital of the world, the former central banker and development economist agreed that with such levels—over 50 per cent of Nigerians (more than 100 million) living below the poverty line—of poverty, the situation truly deserves to be labelled so. He pointed out that this challenge has been exacerbated by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and widespread insecurity. Other contributory factors identified were those of prioritization and the failure to diversify the economy. Therefore, to turn the situation around would require a significant industrial revolution as the only way to employ the vast masses of unemployed citizens. There will also be the need for a comprehensive social transfer network to ensure resources get to those in need; empowerment of people, especially women; access to land and credit, with emphasis on agriculture; and support for Nigerian youths. He stressed support for the youths, explaining that “any nation that ignores its youths is digging its own grave.”

Coming to restructuring, dissolution, or “business as usual” for Nigeria, Dr. Mailafia stated that he stands for restructuring. Even if he does not subscribe to the idea of dissolution, he does not condemn secessionist voices. He explained that he believes Nigeria deserves another try because, despite the historical circumstances around its birth, the country was not a product of chance. He recalled that the peoples of the region had a long history of interaction before any British creation. According to him, Nigeria is worth fighting for because of what it represents to all long-suffering African people worldwide and for black people everywhere. For those who suggest business as usual, Dr. Mailafia called this a mistake.

The third interviewer, Prof. Iheduru Okechukwu, an experienced and widely published political scientist, asked a broad spectrum of questions that were anchored to Nigeria as a failed state and centered on Nigeria’s huge debt profile and who foots the bill; the condition of human rights and the place of the rule of law; if it were smart for the Nigerian diaspora to invest in the country; and if what happened to Jos was emblematic of a failing state, and whether it was reversible. Reacting, Dr. Mailafia noted that the issue calls for sobriety and retrospection. For him, he cannot tell what the loans are used for, citing the 1.3 billion USD loan President Buhari took in 2015 in the guise of rehabilitating the North-East, whereas there is no evidence of rehabilitation. He pointed out that if loans must be taken, measures must be put in place to ensure that such loans have a “calculated guaranteed return on investment;” otherwise, as he pointed out, these loans would be paid for by our children. He also highlighted the condemnable practice of project inflation.

Dr. Obadiah Mailafia On The Parameters Of A Failing State

On diaspora investment, Dr. Mailafia said this was critical to Nigeria’s survival and prosperity, given the delicate nature of its economy and the role such substantial amounts of remitted funds have played in the success of the world’s fastest and best economies, e.g., China and Singapore. He also explained that the Nigerian diaspora cannot help but send these monies as they all have dependents at home; moreover, about 70 per cent of the funds remitted are for family use and not direct financial investments. He, however, reiterated the importance of such remittances to the Nigerian economy and the need to devise better means of investing these funds to gain maximum social returns.

Reacting to the infringement of human rights and other freedoms, and why he should not be prosecuted for making unsubstantiated claims. Dr. Mailafia noted that “he who comes to equity must come with clean hands.” He pointed out that the Nigerian National Broadcasting Cooperation (NBC), which was dishing out rules, was embroiled in a corruption issue. He also stated that those concerned about “hate speech” mainly were against voices that contradict their opinions and interests.

Moving on to the human rights issue, the guest speaker avowed that though the human body can be killed, the truth cannot, and nobody can stop an idea whose time has come. As to why he should not be prosecuted for his earlier comments on the nation’s state, Dr. Mailafia responded that his comments were not made-up but were gotten from reliable sources he refused to mention for their safety. He confirmed that he has never recanted any of his comments because it is not his character to peddle tales and falsehood. He added that he only spoke up as a concerned citizen who could not sit back and feign ignorance about the widespread and relentless killings.

About Jos, Dr. Mailafia described the city as pleasant, with a temperate climate and hospitable people. He stated that the change in the city’s temperament resulted from the aggression inflicted on the people. This, he explained, was perpetrated through strangers who were imported into Jos and who have killed, evacuated, settled, and renamed whole villages. Another reason identified for the change of attitude in Jos is the prevalent indigene discrimination around the country, which Dr. Mailafia said the people of the state have been victims of, especially in Hausa-Fulani dominated states like Kano, Katsina, and Sokoto. According to him, these instances of aggression and discrimination against the people of Jos have transformed a peaceful and almost docile community into a relatively harsh one.

Interview

President Trump, Africa, And The Parable Of Uncertainties

Published

1 week ago

January 28, 2025

NewTimes

Dele Jegede In Conversation With Prince Yemisi Shyllon

Prof. Toyin Falola

By Toyin Falola

Africa remains relevant to global politics. This view shapes the conversation generated on the possible impact of the Trump administration on Africa. Ironically, Africa often conforms to arrangements inspired by the powerful countries of the world, usually because they lack the collective ability to organize themselves as a continent. One emerging question that scholars ask about the unprogressive uncertainty that would emerge from the leadership of Trump is: How do African countries respond, individually or as a continent? The reason for this perspective is clear. If African countries make their demands from the American President who has introduced different policies, would they have the power of negotiations? And if they do as a continent, what if they also lose face in the process?

All these are deeply concerning as it seems the world is gradually moving towards a different character of international relationships. America is sometimes troubled, for example, with South Africa’s position regarding the war in Palestine, and for that reason, they tend to react with one-sided favouritism.

Considering the ongoing realities, however, necessary efforts must be taken regardless of their relationship prior to the emergence of President Trump. In any case, what will happen soon is uncertain, especially because nobody knows the consequences of the United States’ current policies. Even when these policies are unpredictable, Africa is greatly expectant of a future that does not put them in harm’s way, particularly for issues on which they have no input.

Scholars are beaming their searchlight of interest on what the American President means when he indicated that the US would be uninvolved in the international entanglements that some other countries face. They understand, to a considerable extent, that this reveals a posture to stand aloof in any conflict that does not have effects on America and its citizens. While that statement is good on its own, its face value is questioned, given that the same President intends to push an expansionist agenda, which, according to him, would see to the reclamation of what ordinarily belongs to America.

As a result, countries sharing borders with America would become the primary targets, which, on the surface, appears to be a problem that does not involve Africa. However, history has shown otherwise. Panellists understand that expansionism occurs in different dimensions, leading them to ponder how different countries of the world would react to this situation. Up to this moment, there has been ideological expansionism carried out by powerful countries, including America. Such conditions have necessitated the aggressive dislocation of many countries’ internal mechanisms for growth, as they draw inspiration from America, which seems to have established itself as the global police.

I now want to speak in parables. Although change is a constant thing, its underlying causes are often overlooked in the general scheme of things. Evading this germane question has often necessitated conversations that ignore fundamental issues about human development and the social ordering of events. For instance, when people argue that change is constant and believe it is exclusively inspired by nature or some forces against which they stand no chance, they inadvertently assume that making efforts to protect their interests or redirect things is futile. Such an orientation places humans in an extremely uncomfortable spot in matters concerning their welfare. If such thinking persists, they will eternally remove themselves from the possibility of dictating what happens to them. I have interacted with Africans who think in this way, and they are less active in matters that ordinarily concern their collective progress. From the beginning of contact with external civilizations, things that happen to them have either been conceived as nature-induced, against which there is nothing they can do, or seen as a necessary path in the evolution of their society. From natural disasters, which can be predicted and properly managed, to human-induced disasters, many African countries have suffered extensively over their assumption that these changes would happen whether they act or not. Today, they face an indescribable onslaught of their cultural and existential values, they are responding in familiar old ways.

There are several changes caused by humans themselves, and scientific research has established that there is a chain of actions initiated by humans that have tremendous effects on people’s activities, mostly in negative ways. It is common knowledge that human actions cause the current waves of climate disasters. Since climate problems are dispersed in the atmosphere, for example, their environment of influence cannot be pinned to a specific location, even when the centre point of the destruction is public knowledge. It is also a general understanding that Africa is often not mentioned in discussions of rapid technological inventions due to their relaxed nature of being consumers rather than producers of cutting-edge technologies.

Although that is not the focal point of this conversation, it cannot but be mentioned. Africa is never isolated from the problems of climate change, which are predominantly caused by countries and continents heavily involved in the technologization of the world with climate-unfriendly inventions that contribute to the common global problem, specifically climate disasters. Before now, more powerful countries, especially the United States, have made strenuous efforts in collaboration with non-state actors to facilitate programs and projects that would mitigate the burden of climate disasters on many underdeveloped countries so that they would not experience brutal consequences for which they are innocent.

In the TF Interview on Trump and Africa, one of the panellists reiterated why Africa should not be made to face the deleterious consequences of climate disasters. The awareness of two different facts underscores this informed position. One, the United States is on an accelerated path to conservatism, with the newly elected President Donald Trump committed to protecting Americans first, regardless of the situation. Meanwhile, “protection,” like many terms developed from a similar philosophical paradigm, is relative as it could potentially mean subjecting others to inordinate challenges they cannot surmount. Two, Africans have been innocent or the most climate-friendly continent with minimal contributions to environmental or emission-related disasters. The inventions and factories in Africa, most of which can emit dangerous content into the atmosphere, are either linked to global capitalists or are exclusively owned by them. The people of the continent have not shown similar ambition as others have in recent times.

Africans deserve some measure of respite and not policies that would further complicate their situations. This conversation is necessitated by the understanding that Africans themselves are weakened in global politics. Now that they may face increased climate difficulties, they cannot hold others responsible for their failure to act where and when they should. Across the world, respect is not given unless you demand it.

In any case, Africa should be prepared for uncertainties that would be the brainchild of such development. For example, if America pursues an expansionist agenda without failing, countries like Panama and Greenland, among other proximal societies to America, could trigger waves of terrorist reactions and responses, and no one can predict the consequences.

Therefore, African leaders cannot assume they are going to be unaffected by this development, as any meltdown in these places would ultimately affect the economic and sociopolitical exigencies of their people. This cannot be overemphasized, and African leaders must make necessary adjustments to successfully navigate such extreme conditions.What cannot be denied is that a “big man” is now in power who could reorder things differently. Africans must make the right decisions to ensure their interests.

(This is the final interview report with a panel of scholars on “President Trump and Africa” on January 26, 2025. For the transcript, see YouTube https://www.youtube.com/live/XFjeae1GceY?si=t0IlhQl3Qrs9W35v

Falola is Extraordinary Professor of Political Science,University of Pretoria.

INTERVIEW

Lerato Mbele To Interview Kingsley Moghalu January 19

Published

4 weeks ago

January 9, 2025

NewTimes

Lerato Mbele will on January 19, 2025 hold a conversation with Prof. Kingsley Moghalu under the auspices of the Toyin Falola Interviews. Mbele is an international broadcaster, talkshow host, TV personality & media consultant with a passion for African development.

She is the 2023 Recipient of one South Africa’s highest honours (2023) the Charlotte Maxeke Women in Leadership Award – for her work done in international broadcasting.

She is the owner of “Moon Landing Media” (pty) Ltd & proprietor of the African Leadership Dialogues series. In her native home South Africa, she currently hosts a daily talkshow & podcast titled “PowerTalk with Lerato Mbele”.

Prior to this Lerato Mbele spent nine years as a TV presenter and broadcaster for the global news organization BBC World News.

She hosted the BBC’s main Africa-focused business shows “Talking Business Africa”, “In Business Africa” and “Africa Business Report”, as well as hosting international documentaries such as “Follow the Food” and programming that linked Africa’s relationships in global trade, commerce and international development institutions.

Lerato Mbele has also been a senior business anchor at CNBC Africa and also a prime time news anchor in her native South African Broadcast Corporation.

She has worked as a foreign policy researcher and advisor, as well as heading the multiparty democracy programme at the South African Institute of International Affairs. Here she was co-editor of the book “Designing Democracy in Africa” with Ayesha Kajee.

Her international journalism has seen her interview global leaders, chief executives and Nobel Laureates – amongst others being Bill Gates, Ajay Banga, Christine Lagarde, Kristelina Georgieva, Richard Branson, Sundar Pachai, Graça Machel, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Wole Soyinka, Muhammed Yunus, the late Kofi Annan & Wangari Maathai, President Paul Kagame, President Thabo Mbeki, Prime Minister Gordon Brown and other leaders.

She has moderated numerous plenaries at the World Bank, World Trade Organization, New Development Bank (BRICS Bank), World Economic Forum, UNGA, UNECA, OPEC Fund Development Forum and AfDB.

Lerato Mbele is a Chevening Scholar who holds an MSc Development Studies from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) at the University of London.

She was named a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum, in 2014 chapter.

Lerato Mbele was recently awarded one of South Africa’s highest honours (2023) the Charlotte Maxeke Women in Leadership for her contribution to media and broadcasting across Africa. An honour given to her by the Minister of International Relations & Cooperation, and the South African government in recognition of her broadcast journalism across Africa and the developing world, which they stated has helped to change narratives about Africa in the global community.

She has appeared on the power lists of the Oprah Magazine, NewAfrican Women, Leading Ladies Africa, the Star Newspaper, featured in the Mail & Guardian’s biography of the most influential women in South Africa titled “On the shoulders of giants”.

She’s also a former member of the council and board for the University of Cape Town, ranked Africa’s number 1 university and institute of higher learning.

Please join us for a conversation with Kingsley Moghalu, President, African School of Governance (ASG) in Kigali, Rwanda.

Sunday, January 19, 2025
5 PM Nigeria
10 AM Austin
6 PM Rwanda

Join Via Zoom:
https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87199406999

Interview

Toyin Falola Interviews Holds Conversation With Kingsley Moghalu

Published

4 weeks ago

January 9, 2025

NewTimes

The Toyin Falola Interviews is set to hold a conversation with Prof . Kingsley Moghalu, President, African School of Governance (ASG) in Kigali, Rwanda.

Sunday, January 19, 2025
5 PM Nigeria
10 AM Austin
6 PM Rwanda

Join Via Zoom:
https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87199406999

Professor Kingsley Chiedu Moghalu, a political economist and transformational leader in governance and public policy, is the President of the African School of Governance (ASG), a graduate-level pan-African university established to build the next generation of purpose-driven leaders for Africa and headquartered in Kigali, Rwanda.

He was the Founder & President of the Institute for Governance and Public Transformation (IGET), a public policy think tank. Professor Moghalu served as Special Envoy of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) on Post-COVID Development Finance for Africa, and was Professor of Practice in International Business and Public Policy at The Fletcher School at Tufts University and Senior Fellow at the Council on Emerging Market Enterprises.

He previously served as Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria from 2009-2014, leading the implementation of extensive reforms in the banking sector, development finance and impact investing, financial inclusion, and payment system reforms that took Nigeria to become Africa’s largest fintech market and the leading hub for fintech innovation. He also supervised the asset management of Nigeria’s $37 billion foreign reserves.

Prof Moghalu earlier founded Sogato Strategies SA, a global strategy and risk advisory firm in Geneva, Switzerland after a 17-year career in the United Nations system in which he served in strategic planning, legal and external affairs assignments in Cambodia, New York, Croatia, Tanzania, and Switzerland, rising to the highest career rank of Director. He is the author of several books, including the critically acclaimed Emerging Africa: How the Global Economy’s Last Frontier Can Prosper and Matter (Penguin, 2014), and obtained Ph.D., M.A. and LLB degrees at the London School of Economics, The Fletcher School at Tufts University, and the University of Nigeria. Moghalu also is an executive education alumnus of Harvard Kennedy School of Government, Harvard Business School, Wharton, and Columbia Business School.

He is the recipient of several honors including the National Honor of the Officer of the Order of the Niger (OON), Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Bankers (FCIB), and the degree of Doctor of Laws (LL.D.) Honoris Causa conferred by Anambra State University (Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu University) , and holds the traditional title of Ifekaego Nnewi, conferred on him by HRH Dr. K.O.N. Orizu III, Igwe of Nnewi Kingdom. He is also the Founder of the Isaac Moghalu Foundation (IMoF), an education-access philanthropic foundation.

Kingsley Moghalu was born in Lagos in 1963 to Isaac Moghalu (now deceased), a Nigerian Foreign Service Officer, and Vidah Moghalu, a teacher at the time and now a long-retired dietician. Professor Moghalu is married to Maryanne Moghalu and they have 5 children.